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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/19 11:34

   Cattle Trade Cautiously Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report 

   With July's Cattle on Feed report scheduled to be released this afternoon, 
traders are cautiously handling both the live cattle and feeder cattle 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday afternoon as the cattle 
contracts remain cautious ahead of the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, but 
the lean hog market continues to trend higher. Cash cattle hasn't seen any more 
trade develop and it's looking like the bulk of the week's trade is done with. 
December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down 
$1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 305.14 points.


   It's somewhat surprising that the live cattle complex is mixed given that 
later this afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released, and 
total on-feed numbers could be greater than a year ago -- which always sends 
traders into panic mode. But even so, the nearby contracts are trading mildly 
higher, seeming to desire to recover some of the lost position from Thursday. 
August live cattle are up $0.57 at $182.82, October live cattle are up $0.55 at 
$183.57 and December live cattle are up $0.10 at $185.07. No new cash cattle 
sales have been reported, but bids of $310 (which is steady with the week's 
earlier trade) have been renewed in Nebraska. At this point it's looking like 
the bulk of the week's trade is done with, but some more clean-up trade could 

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.02 ($314.13) and select down 
$0.45 ($299.01) with a movement of 105 loads (83.95 loads of choice, 14.91 
loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.75 loads of ground beef).


   In preparation for this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, it isn't 
surprising to see the feeder cattle complex merely holding its breath and 
trading lower. Demand for feeder cattle remains incredibly strong in the 
countryside, continued to be evidenced by the CME Feeder Cattle Index, but at 
this point in time, traders don't seem to care much about what feeder cattle 
sales are doing in the countryside. They seem more worried about technical 
fears and about this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. August feeders are down 
$0.17 at $256.02, September feeders are down $0.80 at $256.20 and October 
feeders are down $0.82 at $256.12.


   The lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher as traders are committed 
to advancing the market and pull the complex out of the hole it dug earlier 
this spring. Thankfully the continued support this week of better pork demand 
has encouraged traders and is keeping them active in the futures complex. At 
this point it's looking like the market will be able to close with a higher 
end, which is a refreshing change for the hog sector. August lean hogs are up 
$0.67 at $92.02, October lean hogs are up $0.80 at $74.82 and December lean hog 
are up $1.40 at $67.10.

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/18/2024 is up $0.44 at $89.71, and 
the actual index for 7/17/2024 is up $0.47 at $89.27. Hog prices are lower on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.47 with a weighted average price 
of $82.23, ranging from $74.00 to $85.00 on 904 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $84.02. Pork cutouts total 210.50 loads with 190.56 loads of pork 
cuts and 19.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.49, $102.74.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached


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